A Better Canadian Poll Aggregator

My methodology is described in a blog post here.

Based on 801 polls conducted between 2015-11-04 and 2021-09-19, I performed a best-fit solve of 38200 linear equations in 33573 unknowns to determine that, as of 2021-09-19:

• 31.37% of voters support the Liberal Party of Canada
• 31.26% of voters support the Conservative Party of Canada
• 18.51% of voters support the New Democratic Party
• 3.94% of voters support the Green Party of Canada
• 7.34% of voters support the Bloc Quebecois
• 6.71% of voters support the People's Party of Canada

Pollster house effects and other statistics arising out of this analysis for the 5 most frequent pollsters are as follows:

Pollster	LPC	CPC	NDP	BLQ	GPC	PPC	Weight	# Polls	Max effective sample
Abacus Data	+0.29%	-0.62%	+0.58%	-0.17%	+0.14%	+0.05%	8.98%	90	5607
EKOS	-0.59%	-0.25%	-2.11%	-0.79%	+1.19%	+1.52%	6.52%	73	1414
Leger	+0.30%	-0.60%	+0.81%	+0.20%	-0.04%	-0.64%	6.62%	79	1454
Mainstreet Research	+1.67%	+0.94%	-2.84%	-0.61%	-0.51%	+0.71%	5.94%	97	1136
Nanos Research	+0.82%	-0.49%	+0.23%	-0.38%	+0.30%	-0.49%	6.38%	226	1657

(House effects are stated as the results reported by the pollster minus the polling consensus value. Weights are the weights used in computing the "consensus house effect". "Max effective sample" means the effective sample size resulting from non-sampling noise even if the pollster interviewed a hypothetical sample of infinite size.)

Full data in CSV format: polls, daily polling averages, pollster statistics.